Six Front Page Stories and the Future

Every year, the Institute for the Future (IFF) explores the big news of the next decade. These are the stories that make the focal points of change and consolidation. They will give the future its broad outlines, set the context for strategy and policy, and ultimately create the artifacts of daily life. The Map of the Decade imagines these stories as artifacts of the future.

The six major categories are: people, places, ecologies, markets, practices and tools. Every time a big story breaks, there are several smaller stories that surround it. It is those smaller stories, according to the IFF, that add up to the big directional changes. How do the signals you find in the map and in your observations drive the big stories?

The map is dotted with issues that cannot be solved by "either/or" thinking but require new strategies that go beyond simple problem solving. Let me give you a tangible example of group economy. Alex Hillman, one of the voices and organizers of our recent blog|Philadelphia, just signed the lease for Independents Hall, a co-working arrangement that will allow him and a group of independent entrepreneurs to share a space, making it easier to energize and assist each other.

This may be the beginning of a series of new initiatives of this kind.

What you're looking at here is the map for 2006. The six big stories for 2007 are:

• A Planet at Risk
• Marginal Mainstreams
• Participatory Culture
• New Commons
• Molecular Vision
• Looking Long

For a closer look at the actual content, you will need to purchase the map. However, we could start a conversation here about the smaller stories that surround these and do some forecasting of our own. As I wrote elsewhere, the future is now. Shall we take a look at participatory culture and new commons? What do they look like in 2007 and what will that mean for the future?

Comments

[Ignacio]

This is fascinating.

Participatory Culture: I'm thinking of the YouTube presidential debates here in the US as a capsule example of the very beginning of how technology is empowering people with the means to put their voices out and influence others.

I think we're in the very infant stage, but, we're starting to see how it plays out and how the status-quo (traditional media, etc) is gonna have to adapt and embrace it.

From a corporate perspective, working with internal communications in a Fortune 100 company, there's a huge opportunity of "stories" emerging about how technology is going to allow us to engage employees in real-time and provide response to their feedback and ultimately facilitate a more engaged, participatory and happy workforce. The challenge is convincing corporate leaders of the value of this and encouraging them to nurture this approach.

New commons: I am having difficulty understanding what that means. Emerging values that are shared by many?

Great on-ramp for a conversation. And thanks for tuning me into the IFF folks.

Ignacio

[Geoff Livingston]

This is really cool. It reminds me of hermeneutics, the study of history through each respective age's contemporary stories. I'm going to have to buy the map. Just Dugg it!

[Kevin Dugan]

Valeria - A pictures worth...a decade in this case.

All bloggers are storytellers, but more need to embrace the visual. Makes it much easier to digest/spread ideas.

[Valeria Maltoni]

Ignacio:

Your example on participatory culture is excellent. I am also thinking about how open space, which has been a big story in the past is translating or transforming into true participation in the future. Customers working on new products alongside companies as in the iRobot post of yesterday. Tom Clifford, the most recent Ask Away guest, talked about the use of videos in internal communications to share stories.

For new commons I was thinking about shared authoring and publishing -- kind of along the lines of creative commons licenses. I might be wrong as I have not seen the report. Shared values sounds valid as well.

[Valeria Maltoni]

Geoff -- I spent hours on the IFF site reading reports and looking at upcoming research. I love the story-based artifacts and the method of encouraging readers to associate our local stories with the big stories. The issue thinking that stretches us to leap into a new strategy is a game changer thought.

Kevin -- what I've observed is that visuals are complementing the stories. Think of the bubble (= conversation) and flame (= community) logos.

[mvellandi]

Participatory Culture:
The current state of affairs I think we're familiar with. Ignacio pointed out the realm of communications between employer and employee. Although a variety of tools (now & later) will be enablers...their implementation and effective use will be based on the culture of the org and personalities of top management.
In a macro viewpoint, getting people to participate will require belief in the value of contribution and (in organizational/club contexts) group leaders who will be encouragement agents.

New Commons:
The big idea is sharing. It may involve certain restrictions or requirements, though these will be implied. Creative Commons will be one form.

[Valeria Maltoni]

Mario:

People will join if they know you're sincere about it and will value their input. Absolutely. The trick is to have the project you're asking input for not become a "made by committee" one. So showing appreciation and managing expectations through communications are key.

Sharing is good -- you share knowledge and assistance, sell experience and skill. This is a tough distinction to make in established organizations where the value used to be in selling the knowledge. Today there is enough knowledge, maybe too much. The money is in the filtering, aggregation, specific making sense and execution.

[Trisha]

What an great conversation and a fascinating concept of using stories as pinpoints on a map of the future - I think each year's map should be buried in a time-capsule so that they could survive any technology meltdown - what a gift for future generations to be able to see what we felt were the important stories of our time.

As Mario pointed out the very nature of the internet (as a tool) enables a Participatory Culture but what's most encouraging is the ease with which younger generations have adopted the model of participation as a part of their daily routine as much as getting up and getting dressed in the morning is. Interaction online is now second nature to so many that it can only continue to grow.

I'm excited to see what the next few years will bring, not only in terms of tools but also the ways in which those tools may be used, possibly in different ways than they were designed to be used. While innovation is not the sole domain of the young, certainly they they are the engine that keeps it moving forward.

I confess that I too do not fully understand New Commons, but I imagine it might have to do with the ways in which technology is making our world smaller, with overlapping goals being one positive outcome.

I'm off to order my copy of the map too!

[Steve Roesler]

Valeria,

Just got back from a corporate meeting which actually morphed into a conversation about how best to enable virtual teams.

They are really trying to get at the best way to build a Participatory Culture of people who are scattered around the globe.

I'm thinking the map will look really good on one of the office walls!

[Mario Vellandi]

Re New Commons:
What a great way to put it. There is perhaps too much knowledge out there now. With intelligence companies galore, white papers to the ceiling, blogs, and other info channels....there really is an ocean out there. The great part is that people can educate themselves so they can then share with others or perhaps become more informed prospective customers. But people have time constraints, so they need experts to filter the common knowledge available to what's relevant to the unique contextual environment.

[Valeria Maltoni]

Trisha -- the ways in which we will use these tools will be different and (hopefully) complimentary to face to face interaction. As I will discuss in my next post, talk is important. Overlapping goals -- now that is an innovative thought!

Steve -- capturing the stories and the common threads will be a way to go. As in my example of Independents Hall, having a way to relate to each other is important to productivity and energy.

Mario -- interestingly enough, one of the reports that caught my attention on the IFF site (library) is about contextual awareness. Now that I'm back in technology I am eager to learn more about applications and impacts.