Conversation Agent - Valeria Maltoni

What Worries you the Most that is Not Getting Enough Attention?

In 2000, Enron claimed revenues of nearly $101 billion and employed approximately 29,000 people. The darling of the stock market set its sights on innovation with visionary plans for broadband. Fortune named Enron “America's Most Innovative Company” for six consecutive years.

“We were building a—what I thought was a fantastic company. We had great people. We were changing—we were changing the way the marketplace operated. We were creating a market for natural gas and electricity that had never existed before,” said Jeffrey Skilling.

A major electricity, natural gas, communications and pulp and paper company, it started shifting parts of its business from producing energy to trading it and diversified overseas. In the 1990s, Skilling hired Andrew Fastow as Enron's CFO, who got to work to make executive team dreams come true. Just few changes to the company's business plan greatly improved its perceived profitability.

On December 3, 2001, Enron filed for bankruptcy. Skilling seemed dumbfound, “I spent probably most of my professional life helping to build Enron Corporation. I don't think there was anyone that was as shocked by the—by the collapse of the company as I was.” Under the pressure to produce results, often executives rationalize their actions.

Analysts and the media had missed the gap between what they knew and what they didn't know about the company. The gap made a big difference on the economics of the business. “When I was initially charged I still thought I was not guilty because I had followed the rules,” said Andrew Fastow. 

Today, businesses are under increased pressure to deliver aggressive results. Along with “unprecedented,” the word “growth” is the most used in professional circles. Yet, while the bottom line ideology is satisfying, as it provides tremendous clarity, companies are under increased social pressure to do the right things, along with doing things right.

The business shift

How did a company with such a massive following and promise unravel? It started with a question nobody had thought of asking. At least, nobody outside the company.

On March 5, 2001, Bethany McLean wrote a simple question in article on Enron for Fortune, “How exactly does Enron make its money?” Nobody else seemed to have thought of it. In “Is Enron Overpriced?” McLean noted that the company's financial statements were “nearly impenetrable. So why is Enron trading at such a huge multiple?” 

McLean's precise reporting was meant to peel back the onion layers and get to the core of a complex business. What she found was confusing—the small gaps in confidence between analysts and company executives should have been troubling. Yet, everyone was willing to rationalize the complexity away.

Enron's promise to hit a certain number of home runs in order to please investors created tremendous pressure to produce profits. While the company might have followed the letter of the law, it misrepresented the economics of the business. McLean noted:

What's clear is that Enron isn't the company it was a decade ago. In 1990 around 80% of its revenues came from the regulated gas-pipeline business. But Enron has been steadily selling off its old-economy iron and steel assets and expanding into new areas.

In 2000, 95% of its revenues and more than 80% of its operating profits came from “wholesale energy operations and services.” This business, which Enron pioneered, is usually described in vague, grandiose terms like the “financialization of energy”—but also, more simply, as “buying and selling gas and electricity.”

In fact, Enron's view is that it can create a market for just about anything; as if to underscore that point, the company announced last year that it would begin trading excess broadband capacity.

Enron was very focused on the what of business: building products it could trade and a company brand. What seemed to make sense on the surface resisted a simple explanation one level down.

The business shifted over years. But the market never saw its complexity. It was tucked into easy to digest promises to hit certain milestones. Until someone thought of asking whether it made sense.

Help us grow sales by 2.5x in 3 years

You may be sitting there thinking Enron was the exception and not the rule. That the executives got exceedingly greedy and saw profits above everything else. But that's not entirely what happened.

Bethany McLean, who went on to write The Smartest Guys in the Room, which became an award-winning documentary on Enron, says it was an odd mixture of rationalization and greed in service of ego. When you get to a certain point in your work life, your comparison becomes people in your set.

If you're in the stratosphere, then that is your reference point. Companies do that as well, they narrow their focus on a small circle of who they perceive as their competitors. Comparisons are a matter of perspective. We'll get back to this idea.

There's a stronger idea bundled with that: human beings have always had a need to be part of a group. Social identity is a powerful force. It compels people to strive to become members of a group, so they can gain a sense of identity that is:

• positive—why everyone wants to be better
• distinctive—why it's important to be different
• enduring—why “who you are” needs to be more durable

Social identity is why positive, distinctive and enduring qualities are the main levers of strategists.

When a company says, “help me grow 2.5x in 3 years,” usually followed by, “with a modest budget and within a tightly defined marketing area,” what they're really saying is, “change my inputs,” except what they mean is, “change my outputs.”

Crossing the chasm

In 1991, Geoffrey Moore wrote the first edition of his bestseller Crossing the Chasm. Now on its third edition reprint, Moore's insight is still relevant, “Trying to cross the chasm without taking a niche market approach is like trying to light a fire without kindling.”

I worked for two decades with businesses that sell to other businesses, in five industries. During favorable market conditions as in contracting markets with favorable product lines, most companies fail to execute on this simple idea. To be sure, right now, the chasm is two-fold: on one side, you have the perfect storm of social divide, on the other corporate mindset.

As I wrote nearly five years ago, companies are still confusing innovation (anything that breaks a constraint) and strategy (about the constraints you embrace), and try to solve too many different types of problems with one solution. They also confuse inputs (why and how) with outputs (what), focusing too much on the latter and missing opportunities to adapt through the former.

A sales- and product-driven company may try to hire a marketer to help build its brand and thought leadership (output) without trying to understand how capacity (input) may be an issue. Focusing on external tactics without the proper support is a recipe for failure to execute strongly enough to turn a corner.

Brand and product flow from internal alignment. When there is a major disconnect between what a company's estimated market opportunity is and its results, the most readily available place to look is inside. Are the right people in the right seats? Take a look at workflows. Are you building the right products? Are people collaborating well? Talk to customers. What's the company's collective identity? Observe the gaps.

Company fitness is a tremendous asset in what many have now called a liquid market environment. Hiring one person to do all the heavy lifting could mean setting them up to fail. Because even awesome individual characteristics like passion, purpose, curiosity and value need to align to company culture.

The potential of one person still needs to align with the capacity of a company to pull off strong execution. Fit matters, but not in the way you may be thinking.

An opportunity to build momentum

Competitive positioning means being ready for a broader set of outcomes. Many companies were caught unprepared for a crisis of the current magnitude. Of course, it's impossible to predict every potential scenario. Yet, a prominent business thought leader had talked about the risks of a potential pandemic five years ago.

Most companies weren't even ready to respond to the emergency. When work-from-home (WFH) went from nice to have to need to have, it was a mixed bag.  Although most employees in desk jobs figured out a way to make things work, according to The Voice of the Crowd WFH Report most companies still overlooked things like:

• home office setup
• collaboration policies to create productivity & innovation and enhance engagement & experience
• communication protocols

Yet, these inputs are critical to inform culture and build capacity. This is the type of work I normally do with companies. My work's focus is to help create strong brands and differentiated product lines customers love. Much of it depends on alignment. Because trends typically take 5-10 years, I can usually do it alone or with few collaborators.

But now there's no time. Companies that are trying to plan as we normally would—with marketing campaigns and thought leadership—are already behind. Some companies have the luxury of capacity and lots of digital learning. Amazon and Slack just announced Workstream collaboration tools. “The future of enterprise software will be driven by the combination of cloud services and workstream collaboration tools,” says Slack CEO Stewart Butterfield.

That's why this week I announced that I joined Liminal Consulting as Partner. Though I'm grateful for the attention to the status change on LinkedIn (power to the algorithm), Liminal Consulting is exactly what it says it is: a group of experienced and time-tested digital marketing and operational pros who can help you deliver value by finding signal through noise: Insights you can act on today.

When I met this diverse and incredibly nice group of executives 7 months ago, it was just an idea they'd been talking about for more than a year. I thought it was a great idea, one that deserved to happen. As I'm known to do, I rolled up my sleeves and got to work to align thoughts with words and words with action.

You learn the most when you're working on something. Working with the group made me realize I wanted to be part of it. It had a positive, distinctive and enduring quality—and came with an opportunity to build momentum for companies, faster.

Operating in open mode

Thank you for all the public and private congratulations notes—it was great to hear from so many in my network. Now let's get to work. Because suddenly everything is liminal, or in a place of transition.

Conronavirus didn't create many of the issues we're confronting today, it accelerated them. Whether you have a competitive strength or you're working to build one, what your company needs most at this moment is velocity: speed with direction.

And from the many, many people I've talked with in the last ninety days, though everyone is producing more than they thought they could, WFH is working (but not perfect), and you found ways to stretch people and budgets, things are still pretty slow. You don't get the kind of momentum you need without capacity to move fast and clarity about your opportunity:

• Time is of the essence. Established players who are able to adapt are taking a stronger hold of their respective categories.  
• Before taking a strong market position, it’s vital to know the position a company holds in the employee', customer’s and prospect’s mind, intimately.

This is another reason why I like being part of Liminal Consulting: we operate mostly in open mode. But we can also get things done. We're all experienced executives who have done (and keep doing) the work in many industries.

Here's the best part: we work at a fair price, because we accept projects based on where we can have impact and create success, not revenue for the practice. Collaborating with us is like hiring a suite of executives in your company: we have skin in your game. It's not about us. It's about you.

Enron's executives were doing many of the right things. They were building a fantastic company with great people and had a strong market position. What got them, eventually, was a certain myopic view of the world. It took a simple question asked by an outsider to shine a light onto it.

I'm not comparing your company to Enron, but I've found that it's often hard to tell what a company knows and what it doesn't know.

“What worries you the most that isn't getting enough attention?” Is a great question. I borrowed it from Dave Nadig who asked it at Camp Kotok in Maine, an annual lakeside retreat where Fed watchers discuss crucial issues without restraints. It sounds like a big question. That's because, as Barry Ritholtz says, it's several questions into one:

Tell us your thinking about the future…

What is the crowd (mostly) unaware of?

What risks are thought of as very low when they may be in reality much higher than that?

It does take a deeper view to see better. For one, comparisons tend to open up to a broader set of issues, players and contexts. Gaining perspective does help do business better—and it can result in a better business.

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Three Books with a Sense of Humor for Serious Leaders

“The closest to perfection a person ever comes is when he fills out a job application form,” says Canadian businessman and politician Stanley J. Randall. That should give anyone pause, it's both funny and true. It's funny because it's true.

Being funny at work is a difficult proposition. Yet, “A company is known by the people it keeps,” said Will Rogers. He was an American stage and film actor, and for that reason knew a thing or two about performance.

In all seriousness, play is serious business. Johan Roos and Bart Victor created the “Serious Play” concept and process while they were both professors at IMD in Switzerland in the mid-1990s. 

Roos and Victor conducted some experiments with leadership teams in Tetra Pak, Hydro Aluminium and TFL and during an IMD program for the top 300 leaders in the Lego Group.

LEGO® Serious Play® became a product line after involving several teams and more than 20 iterations. Consultants use the concept developed as a way to help managers describe, create and challenge their views on the business and build innovation#.

Serious leaders get humor

“If you see a bandwagon, it's too late,” says French-British financier, tycoon and politician James Goldsmith. Leaders have been hip to using humor in business to their advantage for centuries.

But the benefits of humor still make it important to understand its role of persuasion in modern business:

• You can use humor to diffuse conflict. Providing it's well-timed, a quip in the middle of a heated argument can relieve tension.
• Laughter is a welcome release. It can improve the immune system, blood pressure and blood flow.
• You know you've done well when people laugh as much or nearly as much during the work week than the weekend. If not, engagement is poor.
• Who can't wait to be in a fun work environment? It can reduce burnout and turnover.
• People say humor is a desired trait in leaders.

Aristotle wrote about the art of persuasion. In Rhetoric, he suggests that a good joke relies on creating an expectation and then violating it. Humor comes down to expectation violation.

Delivering the unexpected

In 1985, Victor Raskin, a professor of linguistics outlined the “script-based semantic theory of humor.” This means there is a series of actions you expect. For example, when you go to a restaurant, you sit down, order food, eat, pay and leave.

In linguistics, we talk about how certain words elicit the expectation of actions following each other. A joke is made of two parts: 1./ the setup; and 2./ the punchline. Ruskoff noted that it works when the conclusion turns the script on its head.

Here's what Jerry Seinfeld did to the restaurant script:

“Went out to dinner the other night. Check came at the end of the meal, as it always does. Never liked the check at the end of the meal system, because money’s a very different thing before and after you eat.

Before you eat money has no value. And you don’t care about money when you’re hungry, you sit down at a restaurant. You’re like the ruler of an empire. 'More drinks, appetizers, quickly, quickly! It will be the greatest meal of our lives.'

Then after the meal, you know, you’ve got the pants open, you’ve got the napkins destroyed, cigarette butt in the mashed potatoes – then the check comes at that moment. People are always upset, you know. They’re mystified by the check. 'What is this? How could this be?' They start passing it around the table, 'Does this look right to you? We’re not hungry now. Why are we buying all this food?!'”

He reframed it.

Comedians have the most insight into human nature and human behavior. They work to understand what would make people laugh. Often, that means figuring out what people's expectations are, then violating them.

To do that, they need to have a deep understanding about the way people see the world. Culture is a big part of it. What works in Italy, won't work in Texas, and vice versa.

Three books with a sense of humor

There's probably never been a better time to brush up on worldviews and find what resonates with your customers, prospects and employees. The most persuasive leaders are seemingly naturals at this.

Marketers' entire job is to test hypotheses about the way people see the world—whether it’s the perspective of a single person, or the tendencies of groups. To do that, we run experiments. It's a similar process to that of comedians.

Three books that will help you think funny:

1.

The Office: The Untold Story of the Greatest Sitcom of the 2000s: An Oral History by Andy Greene

It's what it says it is: an oral history of the show. If you've not watched The Office yet, now's a good time to do so.

Value: You'll see what the writers were thinking on the characters and story lines and appreciate how much effort everyone put in the show.

2.

Naked Jape : Uncovering the Hidden World of Jokes by Jimmy Carr

Is a history of humor and its cross-cultural uses. You can observe comedy from a few angles: psychology, philosophy and evolution. It includes many scientific references to published books and papers from renowned people in their respective fields, jokes and one-liners.

Value: learning how comedy works.

3.

Shtick to Business: What the Masters of Comedy Can Teach You about Breaking Rules, Being Fearless, and Building a Serious Career by Peter McGraw

Dr. Peter McGraw is a behavioral economist, professional speaker, and expert on the scientific study of humor. He teaches marketing and psychology at the University of Colorado Boulder.

Value: investigates the interplay of emotions, judgment and choice and how you can overcome your limitations. “I don’t want you to be funny. I want you to think funny,” says McGraw.

And resist stress.

Seeing the light at the end of the tunnel

Leaders often need to communicate difficult decisions. They navigate the edge between what's necessary to say and what could be uncomfortable to hear. Reframing helps them recast one thing into another.

There are many ways to say the same thing. Only one appropriate to who you are and what you want to convey.

“Due to budget cutbacks, the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off.”
—Robert Townsend, actor, director, comedian, and writer 

“Sometimes that light at the end of the tunnel is a train.”
—Charles Barkley, former professional basketball player who is an analyst on Inside the NBA 

“Seems like the light at the end of the tunnel may be you.”
—Steven Tyler,  singer, songwriter, musician, actor, and former television personality

Leaders (and marketers) have to validate their hypotheses with people who are out in the world just living their lives. A leader's understanding of people has a dimension of immediacy that the scientist's focused on replicating results over a period of time doesn’t.

Some leaders are able to tap into the universal qualities of what make people tick. Their quotations are timeless because their deeper understanding of what motivates people to work, works.

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Working to Build Together: Words are not Enough

“The hands are an extension of the heart,” goes an Italian saying. In fact, they say that if you want to see how big your heart is, you close your fist. That's about the size of it. But open hands are much more practical for work. And we have much work to do.

As if fears from the pandemic weren't enough to increase the level of physical distance from others, this past weekend have been very trying in the U.S. with #BlackLivesMatter protests. Panic now includes a terrifying escalation of violence in major cities around the country.

Leaders I've talked with, communicated concern and a desire to say something. Making a statement is a first good step, but words are not enough. Taking a stand means using one's influence to lead to concrete, positive action.

Committing to the other

Division is everywhere, yet to solve the complex issues we face, the world needs unity. That is possible only when we commit to the other—to being there for people who are not like us.

Racism was part of my life experience growing up. In my neck of the woods it was between people from the North and South of Italy. There are many historical reasons why North and South developed differently.

The earliest evidence of Italians' extraordinary genetic diversity dates back to 19,000 years ago#. Based on this combination of genetics and environment, human bodies react differently to infections, for example. But there are also cultural and economic reasons.

It's not easy to put oneself into someone else's shoes. I'm going back to the tiny hilltop villages of Lucania now in Christ Stopped at Eboli. That's where the author was an “involuntary guest” of the Fascist regime in the mid 1930s. Turin-born Carlo Levi describes the people and politics of this long neglected part of the country with tremendous affection.

I feel for those farmers. Even as I have no idea how it feels to be marginalized. Ageism is a thing for sure. So is being female and assertive. But it's nothing in comparison with what many people face every single day of their lives.

When I came to the U.S., I had this idea that United stood for something about and beyond the regional divisions I had experienced in Italy. Like Levi found in Lucania, I found a different reality in Philadelphia. So that's my first thought: walk the talk.

Expressing empathy, making a contribution

Many people told me in the past several weeks that they felt a sense of kinship with their neighbors and communities. Many companies also stepped in and adapted to help support their employees. Leadership is not something you claim, it's something you demonstrate.

Josh Bernoff selected a couple of corporate statements that show empathy and communicate concrete steps. Apple CEO Tim Cook wrote:

Team,

Right now, there is a pain deeply etched in the soul of our nation and in the hearts of millions. To stand together, we must stand up for one another, and recognize the fear, hurt, and outrage rightly provoked by the senseless killing of George Floyd and a much longer history of racism.

That painful past is still present today — not only in the form of violence, but in the everyday experience of deeply rooted discrimination. We see it in our criminal justice system, in the disproportionate toll of disease on Black and Brown communities, in the inequalities in neighborhood services and the educations our children receive. While our laws have changed, the reality is that their protections are still not universally applied.

We’ve seen progress since the America I grew up in, but it is similarly true that communities of color continue to endure discrimination and trauma.

I have heard from so many of you that you feel afraid — afraid in your communities, afraid in your daily lives, and, most cruelly of all, afraid in your own skin. We can have no society worth celebrating unless we can guarantee freedom from fear for every person who gives this country their love, labor and life. . . .

But together, we must do more. Today, Apple is making donations to a number of groups, including the Equal Justice Initiative, a non-profit committed to challenging racial injustice, ending mass incarceration, and protecting the human rights of the most vulnerable people in American society. For the month of June, and in honor of the Juneteenth holiday, we’ll also be matching two-for-one all employee donations via Benevity.

To create change, we have to reexamine our own views and actions in light of a pain that is deeply felt but too often ignored. Issues of human dignity will not abide standing on the sidelines. To our colleagues in the Black community — we see you. You matter, your lives matter, and you are valued here at Apple.

A good example of clear writing that names the facts and outlines the actions. It demonstrates:

• Sincerity — the best way to communicate (marketing is a form of communication) is to be as close as possible to what people are feeling and what you can offer.
• Respect — this is essential before you can commit to the other.
• Authenticity — also something you demonstrate by being true to your values.

But you don't have to be the CEO of a company with an enviable market capitalization to act. Confronting bias is not easy, but it shines a light in the dark places.

Speaking up, doing the right thing

It's uncomfortable and you feel put on the spot. But talking about what is happening is important. Indra Nooyi, former Chairman and CEO, PepsiCo says:

This past week, we’ve seen millions of Americans vocalize their pain in protests across the nation responding to the tragic deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and Ahmaud Arbery. We all have a responsibility to recognize this pain and the systemic racism that has caused it, and also to act — by listening, reading, and supporting organizations that make justice their mission. This is especially important if you come from a place of privilege that protects you in some capacity.

As we all consider how to heal this wound, I ask that we not lose sight of the power of our voices. I’ve always believed that confronting bias publicly is essential. If you see a bad actor, say it out loud and set an example for those around you. And don’t be afraid of what you don’t know. Instead, be eager to participate in conversations that may make you uncomfortable and commit to learn more. It may not be easy, but it is critical.

The road ahead will undoubtedly be challenging, and the scale of the work that needs to be accomplished is staggering. Let’s vow to be kind, to roll up our sleeves, and to be part of the force that bends this path toward justice. #BlackLivesMatter

I've done my share of speaking up. I still remember the one time I was there when a middle aged white guy said to my mother, who was then in her early sixties, “shut up, you old woman.”

I turned around, looked him up and down and staring him in the eyes I said calmly, “you apologize to her, right now.” My heart was beating hard as we were in a public place. It took courage, but it needed to be said.

At a minimum, this is what you can do — don't stay silent. It's hard to think of something to say. But it's important to make a statement, to acknowledge the pain others are experiencing, like Tim Cook, Indra Nooyi, and many others did.

If you need help crafting a message that is in line with your values, get in touch.

Support goes beyond words

Here are some examples of companies that made statements of support:

Nike shared the video with #UntilWeAllWin, “For once, don't do it.” Adidas, Nike’s cut-throat competitor in the retail space shared the video, with the message, “Together is how we move forward.”#

Corporate Voices Get Behind ‘Black Lives Matter’ Cause#

Nike, Reebok & More Big Brands Are Taking a Stand For Racial Injustice as National Unrest Heats Up#

In an unusual move, Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, HBO, Starz and other major Hollywood players used their corporate social media accounts to take a stand on Saturday and support the Black Lives Matter movement#

But it takes more than words to change things:

On social media, companies and influencers who call out police violence are being told to 'open your purse'#

Tim Cook also communicated that Apple was making donations to a number of organizations and matching employee contributions. Other companies are taking action, in line with their values:

Girls Who Code Reshma Saujani, CEO & Dr. Tarika Barrett, COO take action in solidarity with Black Americans and the ongoing fight for racial justice.#

“We stand in solidarity with our employees and communities who are voicing their anguish, anger, and deep frustration with systems that oppress and devalue black lives,” says Josh Silverman, CEO, Etsy and pledges to donate $1 Million toward Justice Reform and Black-Led Institutions#

But it's not just the big companies. I'm seeing small agencies pledge what they can, match employee contributions, and make a commitment to inclusion and diversity. That last part is where we can make working to build together sustainable.

Nike shared the video with #UntilWeAllWin. Adidas, Nike’s cut-throat competitor in the retail space shared the video, with the message, ‘Together is how we move forward'.

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/adidas-nike-twitter-lend-support-to-blacklivesmatter-take-a-strong-stand-against-racism-after-george-floyds-death/articleshow/76137390.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

How to Help People Make New Choices

Reframing is a powerful tool in business. A small change of posture can make a big difference. The circumstances of our lives may matter less than how we see them, says adman Rory Sutherland. The global pandemic does provide a context of unprecedented scale (at least in my lifetime) to take a look at how we make decisions.

Coronavirus didn't create many of the issues we're confronting today, it accelerated them.

Companies were wrestling with change for a range of issues before—from hiring, working from home (WFH) and open office, to digital transformation, sustainable business models and innovation.

As individuals, communities and countries we were also wrestling with change—patching what's broken at the moment of need, using workaround around policies and rules that are beyond their usefulness, working faster to lose less ground.

Covid19 lockdowns created a pause of global proportions. Experiences vary based on resources and means, community support, policy, rules and roles. Reality can be so fragmented that we agree on little anymore. Yet, there are many things we have in common with each other.

Sociologist Aldo Bonomi says the situation shines a spotlight on the structural gaps in care. Health has become a value again, but the jury is out on valuing it, creating the appropriate structures and allocating resources where they're missing.

Making sense of what's happening

Many agencies and companies have been releasing trend reports. I've been tracking those in my weekly note that goes out every Friday morning. Things will change—f o r e v e r, say some, not at all, say others.

My take is that some choices that changed short term could stick, other mid-range changes will have longer term implications. “Could” gives you room to act. Change happens slowly at first, then all of a sudden. I've seen this happen in several industries.

There are ways to make sense of what's happening, and methods to keep the pulse of what's going on with your customers and markets. Nobody likes to be blindsided. Assuming is close to not knowing and can also be expensive.

Pick up the phone and talk to customers, suppliers, partners and colleagues. Keep checking in on what they're seeing and doing. Stay open minded and ask open questions.

The focus is on how the other person sees and experiences.

Navigating tensions

I worked on the report for the first batch of key themes from conversations that 119 contributors had with 176 people from 35 countries between late March and mid-April 2020. Keeping an open mind and letting the data speak to you is hard work.

We talked to people from Australia to Azerbaijan, India to Israel, Pakistan to Peru. I talked to people in Italy and the USA—participants signed up on the website. The experiences of engineers, audiologists, taxi drivers, housemaids, nurses, executives, comic book illustrators and many more pointed to 7 areas where change could happen:

1.

CONNECTION: Self-reflection and relationships under lockdown: learning to live with uncertainty—People are adjusting their expectations and we’re now seeing new manifestations of fear, hope, and change.

Why we believe this is important:

For many, the COVID-19 crisis feels like THE most important life-changing time of their lives. But that comes with the pressure of having to figure things out when they feel least in control. How might we ensure that individuals have the emotional support they need to get to the other side? What could encourage self-confidence and a growth mindset? Is this new wave of creative and altruistic energy temporary, or will a spark from a few individuals drive change towards a more mindful society?

2.

COMMUNITY: From “me” to “we”—For many, COVID-19 has created a new or renewed sense of community. As this plays out differently between regions, questions still remain about whether it will last.

Why we believe this is important:

While expressed very differently across regions, what we are seeing worldwide is that in times of global crisis, a strong sense of community brings relief in various forms. This opportunity may come from recognizing these shifts in how people now see their social circles and networks, and/or finding ways to support and prolong favorable aspects (which will differ between regions) of this new sense of togetherness.

3.

COLLISION: Work and family life colliding—Productivity, boundaries and family roles are new challenges for those who are now working from home. Working parents juggle both aspects of their lives, but still find unexpected moments of joy.

Why we believe this is important:

There is an opportunity to help people establish new routines, rituals and mental or physical spaces that help them feel in harmony, or develop mechanisms to better deal with an unbalanced reality.

4.

COMMUNICATION: Calling, messaging, video: the new essentials—People are rethinking the role of Calling, messaging, technology in their lives.

Why we believe this is important:

This is a time for technology to shine – to bring people together in a genuine and authentic way. There is an opportunity to better support those who are new to these technologies, and help understand their unarticulated needs.

5.

COPING: Self-acceptance, re-evaluation, the unexpected—People are appreciating themselves and evaluating Self-acceptance, their consumption patterns in the face of change.

Why we believe this is important:

Will buying behavior now shift more towards filling the emotional vacuum and making aspirational purchases? Will the dilemma of whether to live life as previously or to reboot cause businesses to rethink their strategies? A simple question of ‘who am I?’ is perhaps up for deeper introspection.

6.

CLARIFICATION: Roles, responsibilities and rituals—Increased recognition and appreciation for primary front line workers and an awareness about missing human contribution towards climate, physical environment and nature is evident.

Why we believe this is important:

Appreciation, illumination, and de-stigmatization are silver linings of COVID-19. How might we take advantage of the positive changes to create lasting improvements in our societies? Will this restructuring lead to new taboos and social disparities?

7.

CONFIDENCE: Rethinking trust—The volume of news and views is overwhelming. Who Rethinking trust do we trust? What information is helpful? What is the official government line?

Why we believe this is important:

When the power of trust and guidance goes to non-official groups, people grow uncomfortable. They fear that many pretend to help in order to advance their own agendas. Could a crisis like this require us to be more morally flexible and let natural leaders do their job, regardless of their credentials? How might official and underground leaders come together to lead for a greater good?

I've included the headlines, brief explanation and the why we believe this is important, but you should go ahead and read the details. You'll also notice that many themes overlap—fear and trust, technology and people, hope and uncertainty, connection and re-evaluation.

How people are navigating self-others and community-country tensions is also part of context and can influence choices.

Designing conversations to introduce change

The jobs to be done is a concept the late Clay Christensen put forward to explain why we “hire” a product or service. JTBD forces is a tool (see diagram above) I've been using with clients to explore what is and what could be next. Bob Moesta & Chris Spiek have developed a robust set of resources around the concept.

Choices are the product of four main forces. There are things that push you to make a change, because you're not satisfied with the current product or solution. There are things that pull you because they sound pretty good, so you see upside in changing.

But on the other hand, uncertainty makes you cautious, while force of habit or inertia makes you stay with the current way. Think comfort of what I know when so much is destabilizing. It keeps you going with the flow.

To help people make changes and new choices, you want to address the strongest forces that could keep them rooted to the current ways. A brief explanation:

Push — the struggles people are facing in their current situation. These struggles are strong enough to push people to look for and adopt a better way or solution to the job they want to get done.

Pull — the appeal of a new way or solution. This new way looks good enough to attract people into its orbit.

Anxieties — the concerns and uncertainties people have about the new way or solution. Will this get me what I need?

Habit — anything with business as usual that makes it harder to change. For example, is there risk involved?

Every decision is a journey from what I know, buy and use to what I don't know, could be better, yet I'm not sure if it works. Understanding whether people are in progress on that journey is helpful.

In marketing to businesses, that's how we quality leads. Think about who's making purchasing decisions for a company and the parameters they use to make that decision. Can you help them? A simple example:

Push: “We know we've been having trouble getting visibility into who are our customers and prospects are. What we're doing now gets us there, but it's difficult and fragmented.”

Pull: “Using a software that can help us integrate the data we have in separate systems into a central CRM can really help us. We could see what everyone's working on and where we need help and free resources to do other things.”

Anxieties: “Getting marketing to implement the new solution can help us centralize important data, get higher adoption by sales. We can use our company meeting to see how it’s going.”

Inertia: “What do marketing and sales do today that is desirable in the new system? Is there anything they'd miss from the current methods?”

Inertia is corporate habits, a powerful force.

In marketing to customers, that's how we look at potential innovation. Any time you find a place where people are struggling, you can find an opening for something new. Even better if there are no words for what you're inventing.

Struggle is an indication that you care about something, or you wouldn't be after it. As I look at the themes we found with Not Everyday Life, I see many tensions. Conflict is fundamental to change and innovation. Right now, it's everywhere.

Using the JTBD forces framework has helped me study and promote the switch to new ways of doing things.

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8 Books for When you're in the Mood to Explore Possible Futures

I don't know about you, but after a day of work, some of which includes some level of worry, I'm often not in the mood for reading complex stuff. That's why I've been embracing mystery novels.

But, I also believe there's a place for smart, well-thought-out arguments about things that could impact the future. In my recent email to a growing list of subscribers who are curious about thinking and sensemaking, I shared a list of biographies.

Right now, we're learning a lot from the lives of others... at least I'm learning a lot more about life than a grim tally of numbers. Books worth reading do that, they take you closer to someone's way of seeing the world.

That has value above and beyond fragmented articles and inspirational quotes. A book is a set of ideas with space to create some direction. Direction of travel is useful when uncertainty is part of everyday experience.

Exploration of possible futures

Some writers are masters at holding your hand through new territory. But not every book is useful any time. I've had books sit in my library for months, even years, before I picked them up to read. When I did, I was glad it was at that moment.

They say when the student is ready, the master shows up. As is with every stage in human growth, so is with stages of emotional readiness.

I tried to make this list a little bit like a journey with several stops.

1.

Everyday Chaos: Technology, Complexity, and How We’re Thriving in a New World of Possibility by David Weinberger

The title of the book comes from “Chaos Theory.” A theory that provides mathematical tools for modelling highly complex, nonlinear systems, making it possible to analyze everything from the flow of water around a boulder, to climate change. Altering one element can have surprising and dramatic effects on entire enmeshed systems, just like the tiny pebble on your windscreen... as happened to me recently.

Behavioral economics demonstrated just how irrational we are and changed economic thinking. ‘Everyday chaos’ thinking must change our understanding of strategy and our business decisions.

Central thesis: for centuries, human's imperfect knowledge about the world has rested on the assumption that if we work hard enough and think clearly enough, the universe will yield its secrets. It won’t, and it cannot: there isn’t a box of secret rules.

The “true complexity of the world far outstrips the laws and models we devise to explain it.” That doesn't mean we cannot act intelligently—we can and must. However, the fundamentals of our thinking and decision making must change in the light of the chaos we now experience and are beginning to understand and internalize. Machine learning can help recalculate variables, but it won't take away the uncertainty.

Strategy is more important than ever, but it looks more like strategizing. Companies and people must engage more with scenario planning to help see through the implications of large scale changes. Energy can come from tiny changes distributed throughout the system, if the system is large, complex, and densely connected enough. You are here.

2.

The End of Competitive Advantage: How to Keep your Stretegy Moving as Fast as your Business by Rita McGrath

This book is more about transient advantage vs. large-scale change. Professor McGrath debunks Michael Porter’s idea that you can ever have a “sustainable competitive advantage.” Any inventor of a defunct piece of technology has felt the impact. Thus a “strategy of continuous reconfiguration.”

Central thesis: Companies must put in place ways to be alerted to changes anywhere in their environment. This is both organizational structure and culture, to enable companies to respond by letting go of the current trajectory and creating a new one.

McGrath’s approach is to be aware of small changes. This is a more appropriate response to the delicate interrelationship of every aspect of life, any bit of which might affect your business.

“Often, the people who see changes coming are not those in charge of making major organizational decisions. ... Often, also, the people who are in positions to make difficult choices face the prospect of personal and career catastrophe if the predictions turn out to be false.”

3.

Acting with Power: Why We Are More Powerful Than We Believe by Deborah Gruenfeld

Actors aren’t the only ones who play roles for a living. Your roles may vary, and you can be more effective if you acknowledge them. Are you in the role of “boss” or “subordinate,” “dad” or “friend”?

Central thesis: Gruenfeld explains what playing high and playing low mean, and when to use each. “Power is a part you play in someone else's story,” she says. The idea of purpose to power is interesting.

This book may be empowering: Gruenfeld sees power as a valuable asset people should use to serve, rather than a thing to accumulate.

See also the difference between power and status. Gruenfels, a social psychologist, says:

“like playing power up, playing it down is an act, designed to make us appear less intimidating, less capable of winning a fight, and less ruthless than we might actually be. But this doesn’t mean it isn’t truthful.”

4.

Courage To Be Disliked: The Japanese Phenomenon That Shows You How to Change Your Life and Achieve Real Happiness by Ichiro Kishimi

A dialogue between a philosopher and a young person. Kishimi uses the theories of Alfred Adler, one of the three giants of nineteenth-century psychology alongside Freud and Jung. But the 5-conversations format might not everyone's cup of espresso.

Central thesis: each person is able to set the direction of their life. Many of us may need guidance as we set out to go through the wake of this pandemic. Kishimi takes you through self-forgiveness, self-care, and mind decluttering.

It's really hard to detect one's own self-limiting beliefs. One one hand, I try to be realistic about my prospects; one the other, I try to have confidence in my abilities. Somehow, I seem to be bobbing too much in the waters of recognition, especially after a day of too much exposure to social media.

5.

The Tyranny of Metrics by Jerry Z. Muller

Too many metrics are killing productivity. Human performance is so much more than a bunch of numbers. Muller is a historian. He says there are three components to the metrics fixation: 1./ replacing judgment with numerical values; 2./ publicizing numbers to make institutions transparent and accountable; 3./ managing people is to give them numerical targets and evaluations.

Central thesis: Our fixation with measuring has gotten us stuck on ease of measurement as a metric. Ironically, despite all this measurement, productivity is lagging. Rather because of it. This overlooks human energy and endangers the quality of our lives and institutions.

The problem is not measurement itself, but excessive use of it in areas where personal judgement based on experience could be better. A way to know: If the object of your measurements can be by altered by the measuring process, then the results is less than accurate.

Some examples in the book: hospitals keep dying patients alive for 30 days because that’s the measure of treatment success. Surgeons decline to operate on iffy cases for fear of them dying too soon. Creative teachers quit and move to private schools where teaching to the test and abandoning real learning are not the main activities. Universities cripple research in favor of reporting on every aspect of education, right up to how much each graduate is earning ten years later. All efforts focused on moving up the rankings in various, competing lists. Cheating by teachers, administrators and politicians on No Child Left Behind are legendary.

Also see knowledge work and the metric black whole. As Muller says:

“There are things that can be measured. There are things that are worth measuring. But what can be measured is not always what is worth measuring; what gets measured may have no relationship to what we really want to know. The costs of measuring may be greater than the benefits. The things that get measured may draw effort away from the things we really care about. And measurement may provide us with distorted knowledge—knowledge that seems solid but is actually deceptive.”

6.

Guide To The Good Life: The Ancient Art of Stoic Joy by William B. Irvine

Stoicism doesn't rescue you so much as train you to manage unproductive emotions and thoughts. It teaches you to bundle up or triage your concerns according to a fundamental dichotomy.

Central thesis: Irvine expands the classical stoic dichotomy “Some things are up to us, other things are not” (Epictetus) to a trichotomy: “things I have no control over, things I have absolute control over, and things I have some measure of control over.”

For example, you can exert control over your goals, values, what you formulate as your life philosophy.

We have no control over the sunrise, or of the past—what's happened has happened—or over trade or immigration policy and other acts of people in high office over whom we have no means of influence. We have some control over our professional lives but cannot guarantee success in every endeavor, only that we'll do our very best to fulfill the mission.

Given that what makes a good life? Is probably one of the most read articles here, I'm guessing this could be a good addition to your library. Irvine says:

“if we seek social status, we give other people power over us: We have to do things calculated to make them admire us, and we have to refrain from doing things that will trigger their disfavor.”

“One reason children are capable of joy is because they take almost nothing for granted.”

7.

Thinking in Systems: A Primer by Donella H. Meadows

There are limits to growth, which is also Meadows' international bestseller. You're likely familiar with the idea that interconnected systems cannot be solved by fixing one piece in isolation from the others. This is a nice, basic text about systems-thinking. But is in no way and exhaustive treatment of the topic.

Useful ideas: In chapter four Meadows argues that one of the reasons why economic modelling is flawed because it concentrates on flows not stocks (e.g., production rather than productive capacity) and doesn't consider the dynamic between them. Chapter five on systems traps has an interesting comparison on population policy in post World War II Romania, Hungary and Sweden. Attempts in Romania to increase the birth rate by banning abortion led to an increase in deaths from back-street abortions and an increase of children abandoned at orphanages. While in Hungary there was a focus on building instead to counter people delaying having families (symptom) due to a lack of housing (cause).

Quotes I liked:

“There are no separate systems. The world is a continuum. Where to draw a boundary around a system depends on the purpose of the discussion.”

“Purposes are deduced from behavior, not from rhetoric or stated goals.”

8.

The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger by Marc Levinson 

This is a bit of a surprise, I've been curious about this topic for a while. Recently Italian architect Carlo Ratti converted shipping containers to serve as intensive therapy units for Covid-19. They are quite versatile, but where do they come from?

Central story: the drive and imagination of an iconoclastic entrepreneur, Malcom McLean, turned containerization from an impractical idea into a massive industry that slashed the cost of transporting goods around the world and made the boom in global trade possible.

The container didn't just happen. Because it required massive investment for adoption to take place. Levinson is an economist and historian. He draws on sources previously overlooked to give us a fuller picture of the box's impact on trade. Before containers, shipping was very expensive.

But, dependencies. Before large scale adoption, the thinking behind ships and trains etc. had to change. Ships had to stop thinking they were in the sailing business, for instance, and begin to see themselves as freight-movers. Everything they did had to be with the idea of the best, cheapest, easiest way to handle freight and get it on it's way.

This is a case where thinking inside the box actually helped.

“In 1961, before the container was in international use, ocean freight costs alone accounted for 12 percent of the value of U.S. exports and 10 percent of the value of U.S. imports.”

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Stop Chasing Your Tail, Make New Sense of What's Happening

How do you make change happen?

I'm not talking about setting out for the big transformative change or the stuff of revolutions. That's also important. But, in the here and now of your life, how do you keep things moving forward?

Another way of asking the same question: how do you get unstuck? Out from autopilot and into creative thinking. Or, facing a crisis, how do you keep anxiety at bay to do what you need to do to keep calm and stay safe?

There's a simple tool you can use to get more of what you want. It can get you clarity, answers and next steps. That tool is asking questions to engage in conversation.

Why too many decisions spoil the day

Have you ever found yourself in front of your office building, or a store with no recollection of how you got there? Are you the kind of person who can buy groceries while on the phone? I won't probe about texting and driving... it's not a good thing. But you get the idea.

Every day, we make hundreds and thousands of decisions, mostly without batting an eyelid. Because we don't even realize we're making so many. What happens is that some decisions you programmed into habits, some you estimate using rules of thumb.

A shopping list, taking a specific route to work, putting the keys in the same place, you may even pick clothes for that important client meeting the night before. On a good day, when things are fairly ordinary, there's only a limited number of situations where you need to make conscious decisions. Some people are really good at focusing on what's important.

Being in autopilot is a fairly common way to operate. Culture influences decision-making to some degree—directly, and indirectly. How you go about doing things (your personal style) and how you see yourself (your identity) include social pressure.

We're not as original as we'd like to think. Yet that can be a good thing. It helps us conserve energy for what's important. But if you want to get better at taking control of your decisions, a good place to begin is to look at the range of possible outcomes.

Your decision-making landscape could have changed drastically by now. Some fundamental things have changed (temporarily). How do you make sense of the world when you're (likely) called to make more new kinds of decisions and are (maybe) anxious about the future?

Humans are sensing machines

The process you and I use to give meaning to our collective experiences is called sensemaking. People are constantly doing things while figuring out what's happening and what it means. This is one reason why companies that organize their messages in a way that follows these natural inclinations get a slice of attention.

Let's think about attention a little further. When we're in unfamiliar environments, some (or many) things change, and we have a chance to make a fresh start. People say this is a reason they love to travel: certain aspects or degrees of their experience change.

Travel is a temporary part of experience, it's like a simulation. You get to test-drive a different life for a period of time. Exposed to another context and culture, you renegotiate your identity based on who you meet and what you work out.

Normally, you and I protect our attention and energy with autopilot to be able to get through the day. Being very tired or feeling a bit listless is probably an indication that your brain was working extra hard in manual mode. That circumstances have changed many parts of your normal routines.

A pandemic or other catastrophic situations require a sustained manual mode. This is why many of the people I've talked to for Not Everyday Life said they felt exhausted, especially in the beginning of the lockdown.

Behaviors, habits and attitudes shift as you deal with new information. Families had to renegotiate roles, routines varied, and the normal flow of information, including social media, went up exponentially. People were trying to get to critical data while the situation was developing. All while trying to keep safe.

Leaders had to make decisions with impact to the people in their spheres of influence—family, employees, partners, collaborators, etc.—and consequences beyond the immediate future. That's a lot of deciding in a short time span. Think of the complexity of knowing what to do and communicating it clearly at the same time. Then there's the messages out there: ads, marketing programs, deals, etc.

Because we're not really good at predicting the future, deciding who to trust and what things to take at face value are also forms of decision making. This is where we try to take shortcuts and go on autopilot to save energy.

Yet, a well-developed ability to make sound decisions has impact on the future. Which is why, on a personal level, it's a good idea to have a system to get back to basics on how to choose for oneself. Whether the choice is a source, or a course of action.

What do you do when something doesn't make sense?

If you're human, you do one of three things. You either (1) ignore it, if you think it doesn't matter. Maybe you get back to it later if it looked interesting, but not relevant to what you're doing now.

(2) You estimate what you think it means. Or, if you've got time and you're not too busy, you (3) try and work out in detail what something actually means. Since this happens hundreds of times a day, this is where your autopilot helps. 

We get really good at deciding which ones of the three to pick from past experience. But this breaks when we face something new. Then, it becomes risky to figure things out on your own. Go down the wrong path, and you're facing a bigger problem.

Alan Arnett is an engineer who became fascinated with how we make decisions and what we do when things don't make sense#. He says we actually split into two functions. The part who ought to know what to do, the grown up part that gets paid loads of money and is trying to get things done.

Then, slightly in the background, is the part that is constantly checking and trying to figure out if we're doing the right thing by comparing what we're doing now with what we've done before.

But with decisions, it's not just you. You've got the situation you're dealing with, the other people involved with you, plus the way you see and deal with things—all happening at the same time. Noticing your reactions and dealing with them is very important to everything you do.

It can go either way. You're checking things and see a problem, you then start arguing with others and trying to avoid it. If you're optimistic and think things will go well, you could go in too fast and still find a stumbling block later on.

This way of thinking is from the mind of an engineer. And I really appreciate it, because it looks at the process and tries to understand where it goes wrong. If you have teenagers at home, avoiding and arguing are familiar reactions.

You can get good at avoiding and arguing, but you don't make as much progress on the thing you'd like to move forward. There's another way of looking at differences that is more constructive—Arnett calls it colliding and creating.

Some things already make sense. They're the things for which we use patterns to figure out what's happening. This is where we store the stories we tell ourselves, the habits we form with our routines, riding a bike, walking down the street, these are all activities that use patterns we already formed.

But there are also situations where we need to make new sense.

This is when we're called to explore the specifics of a meeting, a question or circumstance. Often, we get so caught up on the pattern-seeking side of sensemaking, that we overlook what's different in the thing right in front of our nose.

Trying to solve a problem in one context using what worked in another is a common example of this.

Can I fix it?

Back in the late '80s early '90s I worked with someone who had used this same thought process in the neurological field. Glenn Doman was a physiotherapist who noticed the need for making new sense to rehabilitate people who had lost physical and/or mental function.

Instead of fixing the limb, where the symptom was, he found a way to collide his knowledge with that of a brain surgeon to see what was happening in the brain. He then set out to study how normal development happens to see what what missing and how it could be retrieved or rewritten.

He created a method to connect the two data points. He came up with a developmental profile. What needs to happen on the input side to get the type of output that makes you function as a human being. The key functions.

It's a long story that helped get thousands of brain-injured children better by creating the environmental conditions that would program new patterns in the brain. Working with him changed the way I look at problems.

Doman asked the three fundamental questions Arnott proposes:

1. What are we solving?
2. Where are we heading?
3. How might we get there?

This is the shortcut a medical professional and and engineer have used for over fifty and twenty five years respectively to make new sense of things. I've been using a similar process to break down complex situations and strategize new directions with clients. 

If you're in the middle of something and getting very frustrated and stressed or excited and eager to jump in front of a fast-moving train of thought, you can use questions to slow yourself down and make new sense.

Questions create space. Questions have the power to get you energized or calm and get other people engaged.

What are you hoping to accomplish?

Mike Wagner works with leaders. He's helping them make sense of what we've come to see as the great disruption. The image above is from a webinar he's done recently. Mike uses conversation as a discovery tool to observe what's going on and get people to engage in making new sense.

For example, to help a company understand why they were having more product returns, he listened to dozens of customer service calls. He noted three main types of company representatives' behaviors: those who dominate the conversation, those who believe the client right off the bat, and those who get quickly to a next step.

That seems an obvious range of behaviors. But what's not so obvious is how you help people see what they're doing and how it holds the company back. If you don't know what you're solving, if you can't see the evidence and how reachable it is, you won't get aligned on getting there.

Mike labeled the behaviors. Because it's important to have shared words for understanding what's happening. With new categories, you can create mental models around who says what and what change would look like.

Once you make new sense of a situation, you can figure out how to transition people out of automatic mental patterns and into new mental models. Mike told me he created a program for the reps to practice leading a guided conversation.

Imagine a call starting with: what are you hoping to accomplish? 

Is it confirmatory or exploratory?

Siamack Salari is a leading expert in ethnographic research. For more than twenty five years, he's been pioneering development in qualitative research. He's also the founding contributor of Not Everyday Life.

Our collaboration in steering the 1,000 plus crowdsourced project to make new sense of what's happening is reinforcing the importance of reframing when exploring specifics of a situation.

The job of a researcher and strategist is to help see things through a new lens. If this is your work, what you do is literally to: learn what's a desirable endpoint for the client (the brief), observe what's there (reality) and make new sense of things.

It's critical to set the right expectations throughout. That includes for the role you play.

Siamack says he's been lucky in his career, most if not all the work he's done has been exploratory. That means making new sense to understand a situation. That's where you can ground a program.

It can be tricky if you forget to figure out the main question: is this confirmatory (i.e. validation) or exploratory? Your direct client usually has a bigger client in her/his company. Even when you work with the CEO, the private equity company or the board of directors could be the ultimate client. Yep, that works even in government and media. Direct and indirect interests could collide.

Here are some examples of reframing in brand strategy.

1. Pirelli comes to you and says I want people to buy more tires. You help them by reframing the goal from the point of view of their potential customers: drive around more.

2. Rai3, which is the national education channel in Italy, comes to you and says viewers are complaining, this is proof they need to change programming. You help them reframe the context from the point of view of the audience they want to attract: people who like to think deeply.

3. Illy caffe' says people are saying their coffee is more expensive compared to drip coffee. After you inwardly swallow a cup of amazing espresso, you help them reframe product positioning. Illy is inexpensive compared to Starbucks.

Reframing is about looking at the question differently and asking a better question.

Making new sense to help you move forward

The point is that our pattern-seeking brains can keep us stuck in first gear when we're facing a new situation. Avoiding and arguing can be a career-ending proposition. In a riskier situation, they can get you into dicey spots.

I've spent a lot of time inside companies working on re-imagining brands to revitalize businesses and getting people to believe in them again. I've been involved in responding to major crises. I've also been on the other side of the fence as a consultant and coach to help businesses with digital. 

Engineers and technical people get very excited about the stack. Business people get energized thinking about the business results. Then you've got to think of customers and everyone else in the company. The technology changes, but it's getting people to talk to one another that matters most to success.

A certain amount of friction is useful to create traction, so colliding is favorable to creating. Generations don't matter as much as we think. It really is about being human and figuring out: why are we here? Where are we trying to go?

Back to the original question: How do you keep things moving forward? Which is a more personal way of asking how to make change happen—from stasis or stuck to forward motion.

You can borrow from the tools that work for many disciplines:

• notice—critical in research and structural thinking.
• breathe—critical in meditation, athletics and other kinds of artistic performance but also in life. Even better if you train yourself to do this every time you wash your hands, which now is very frequently.
• question—valuable in strategic work for many disciplines. Asking questions is a way to bypass our pattern-seeking brains and make new sense.
• explore—how to reframe situations from different perspectives. Essential in development work.
• practice—what everyone is here to do. When you do it with intention and the intent to define direction, more practice makes progress.

I came across two essays recently that have reinforced the same sense of fragility we face as humans I have felt during personal and family difficulties: lessons in perspective. The more we are willing to make new sense, the more sense we make.

I'd like to thank Mike and Siamack for prompting this conversation on sensemaking, where grounding outstrips groundbreaking.

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[image courtesy Mike Wagner, White Rabbit Group; here's a link to Mike's video conversation on How to Lead During the Great Disruption]

The Coronavirus Shows Why, if They are to Stay Healthy, Companies Need to Rethink Practices

It was obvious before the pandemic. Companies spent less and less time and effort at the micro level, trying to sort out what's desirable for people. I've heard it from strategists and from qualitative researchers: a mandate to figure how to capture and manage attention quickly.

Understanding, like relationships, take time and commitment to build. But technology moves at a faster pace, enveloping everyone into its speed and growth potential. Hence the widening gap between the things we must choose to do and those we leave on the cutting floor.

It's taken a global pandemic to realize that we don't know what we don't know. In fact, the people who know the most themselves don't know enough with any sense of certainty. Distributed networks all over the world are helping people stay safe and informed better than official channels.

Why is that? Because complexity plus chaos change the game. We had complexity before, of course, even though companies tried to manage for ordered systems. To keep some form of control. Technology had already changed the trajectory of, well, change, making it difficult for creatures like humans to think exponentially.

But with the additional complication of accidental chaos brought about by the crisis the degree of uncertainty has become very high. Hence why the people selling certainty right now are doing so well in getting attention.

Your results may vary

When is efficiency actually detrimental to brand health? You're correct if you're thinking that it could be catastrophic when context changes. Checklists fail outside of their context. They fail when you implement.

In early January, when I naively thought the new SARS emerging in China was like the previous SARS and could be contained, I purchased a ticket to go see my mom for her birthday in late May-early June. British Airways sold me the ticket, but I bought it through American Express. Good thing I did.

When in early March it became obvious that Italy had a problem, I started worrying about my upcoming trip. Due to the uncertainty of the developing situation, however, I did nothing. At the time, BA was offering a voucher, and I didn't know that I would be able to use it within a year if the trip had to be canceled. So I waited.

In April, it had become obvious that the trip was not going to happen. When borders close, one takes a hint. Many airlines were refunding tickets. BA was still holding onto the voucher option. Even when the U.S. government communicated that they were going to fine airlines that did not provide reimbursements.

I reached out to American Express, my travel agent. They told me to wait a few days. I waited and monitored the BA website, no change. After more than one week, I was able to get the refund through American Express. It should not be that hard!

Yet, even with potential sanctions looming, BA had canceled the London-Bologna portion of my trip with no refund and was sticking to its policy. Eventually, the entire flight was canceled and reimbursed.

However, a few days later, I got this message:

It's true, I've been a member of the Executive Club, Silver Status. It's not that easy to get, you've got to spend quite a bit, especially if you don't travel as much for work anymore. Last year I traveled to Italy three times (the status expires every year) to see family and work on a side project. I earned the points. Still, I do feel like a guinea pig on a spinning wheel. One-way loyalty sounds like bribery to me.

But it gets worse. I have no idea when I'll be able to fly again. Because borders are closed, I care about my mother's health, I have no easy access to reliable testing, and neither does she. We have no idea how flight processes will change... and if we'll still feel like flying when so much is up in the air.

Here's the clincher, though. When I got that automated message from the BA Executive Club email system, I cried. Because it reminded me not of how stupid efficiency is in companies that try to save human effort by automating as much as possible. I cried because it reminded me of the widening gap between my desire to see my mother and reality. I can't go.

Take that emotional wake in association with your brand. BA has demonstrated three levels of insensitivity to my needs as a loyal customer with a considerable lifetime value: 1./ giving me just one option, voucher, for as long as possible; 2./ not doing the right thing, i.e. more options, until forced; 3./ not reorganizing marketing processes around the emergency. 

Dear companies, I understand why it's prudent to take a look at marketing budgets when the market contracts. But please, please don't be foolish. Every impression counts. Operations is marketing. Contracts are marketing. Privacy language is marketing. The messages on your website are marketing.

Hence why your results may vary.

What you should do instead

Let's get very real. This is simple, but not easy to pull off. That's why leaders get paid the big bucks. To, hopefully, know the difference between what operating system to adopt when.

So the first question is are you operating in an ordered, complex, or chaotic system? This is actually another good case when you can pick two, just like fast, good, and cheap. I get it, there are tensions to manage: shareholder primacy, stakeholders soundbites, lives are at stake. Could the “pick two” paradigm hold here?

Let's hold onto that question as long as possible so we can find a better answer while we work through the problem. With decision-making, it's useful to understand when decisions need to be made. Timing is everything. Or maybe everything is time. Don't fly blind. Making decisions based on old information is like flying blind.

I've taken some notes from the 90-minute session on complexity that addresses covid-19 challenges to add to my own experience. Every company right now is trying to hold onto previous investments (loss aversion is very human), and figure out what's next, to find a path forward, fast.

Seminars promising answers via trends are selling like hot cakes. Some are interesting, some could be useful. But as a leader, you have the responsibility to provide direction to your company, not a generic company in a generic industry.

How do you know what's going on with your customers/market?

• distribute situational assessment—more ears on the ground. Ironically, that's what a good social media employee policy ten years ago would give you today. If ten years ago you had put in place a mechanism for all employees to listen for trends, ideas, market forces using social (and yes, even help out with customers issues) via personal channels, you'd now have an amazing network of skilled and trusted people you could rely on. Lacking that, hopefully you put in place smart working at your company years ago. Your people also know your business, or they should. Net/net: Companies that have ready access to distributed networks based on relationships of trust right now have an advantage. They can learn more, faster.
• disintermediate (raw) data—you want to get your hands on as much raw data as possible. This means hearing out the 17 percent of people who don't fit your idea of customer or partner. That's the missing data, by the way. Companies rarely get their hands on it. Because the propensity is usually to focus on the low hanging fruit. Innovation is a special project, if it exists at all, not a way of operating. This is the reason why some company people, maybe even some people in your company, decided to join Not Everyday Life. They get that it's important to access raw data, their marketing budget was cut. They joined as individuals, but they'll help their company, or try to if company leaders will listen, of that I'm sure. I was one of those people when I worked in corporate. It's a very lonely place. Net/net: Leaders, find those people in your companies and talk to them.
• embrace granularity and redundancy—when your automated systems are failing the emotional test with customers, you see the importance of people, a redundancy. The people who are taking initiative and have been helping your company through their private social media channels and email accounts are not lone wolves. In fact, quite the opposite. That's how they survived through the frustrating experience of executives rarely listening to them, if ever. They are part of small, informal groups inside your company. Small, distributed groups can coordinate much faster than larger groups, especially in times of chaos/emergency. Because they likely know how to get stuff done when the processes break or make no sense. They're used to going around the bureaucracy to get things done, because they care about customers more that the system does. Net/net: If you're lucky and these people survived inside your company, they're your lifeline. 

Coronavirus doesn't care about your company. It has no body, nor mind. Hence, it's not even an enemy. It survives by mutating in human bodies. Its mechanism to spread is to inhabit the same human bodies companies seem to want to eliminate.

When we don't know what the (real) problems are until much later, we need to capture intelligence in a radically different way. This means operating at several layers at the same time.

But execution looks very different from the example I provided from British Airways. Their three levels are not a good example. That way of operating lacks imagination, and imagination is an actual cognitive process in your brain. It helps you put things together, in a way you cannot do logically.

Distributed cognition is a way to gain different perspectives fast. Use it and you have at least a chance to increase diversity of input in your decision-making. Do try this at home. Results may vary.

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I've been sharing ideas and perspectives about business and culture in my weekly email to nearly 1,000 new subscribers and growing. I organize issues by theme to minimize overwhelm.

Ten Books to Gain Perspective

People have asked more questions in the last few weeks than in the last ten years. They all start with what's the future of—work, cities, travel, faith, science, education, government bodies. Every day brings in new questions, few answers.

But this is not for lack of trying. The questions are just too complex to work out individually. Networks started forming around each of these questions, scientists, academics, researchers are pooling their thinking and experience to make it more difficult for the virus to spread and improve humanity's odds.

People connect on similarities—like language, body of knowledge—yet benefit from differences—such as cultural context, specific experience. You can take advantage of this principle and explore the ideas and experience of others.

You don't need to be part of a specific network to do that, you can learn through books. Human beings have the ability to imagine. Through imagination, you can put things together in your brain in a way that is not possible logically.

In my quest to accelerate my imagination and cognitive process, I've come across several books, articles, and webinars to help gain different perspectives. I've been sharing most of the material in my weekly email to nearly 1,000 new subscribers and growing. I organize those by theme to minimize overwhelm.

But every so often, I like to group books into a list. People find them helpful. For example, recently I shared thought provoking readings to build a better future. Here, I'd like to push a little bit outside my own comfort zone.

Ten books to gain perspective

I've come across these books through a very organic process. Down a rabbit whole on my path to understanding complexity and questions.

1. Design Unbound: Designing for Emergence in a White Water World: Designing for Emergence by Ann M. Pendleton-Jullian and John Seely Brown—thesis: in a world where causality is systemic, entangled, in flux, and often elusive, we cannot design for absolute outcomes. Instead, we need to design for emergence.

Imagination is a big muscle we can flex. John Seely Brown talked about its role in helping you ask the right questions:

“The real key is being able to imagine a new world. Once I imagine something new, then answering how to get from here to there involves steps of creativity. So I can be creative in solving today’s problems, but if I can’t imagine something new, than I’m stuck in the current situation.”

Ann Pendleton-Julian was one of the four members of a conversation on a 90-minute session on addressing covid-19 challenges (via Tim Kastelle). If you're a leader called to make decisions, listening to this could make a real difference in your thinking.

2. How to Do Nothing: Resisting the Attention Economy by Jenny Odell—thesis: in a world where our value is determined by our 24/7 data productivity . . . doing nothing may be our most important form of resistance.

The book came after a talk, you can find the transcript here. I followed many of the citations you'll find in the talk and the book.

3. A Paradise Built in Hell: The Extraordinary Communities That Arise in Disaster by Rebecca Solnit—thesis: how disaster throws people into a temporary utopia of changed states of mind and social possibilities, as well as the cost of the widespread myths and rarer real cases of social deterioration during crisis.

4. After the Future by Franco Bifo Berardi—thesis: our future has come and gone; the concept has lost its usefulness. Now it's our responsibility to decide what comes next.

Berardi has a European perspective in the way he describes labor. But perhaps it resonates in many parts of the world now:

In the global digital network, labor is transformed into small parcels of nervous energy picked up by the recombining machine. … The workers are deprived of every individual consistency. Strictly speaking, the workers no longer exist. Their time exists, their time is there, permanently available to connect, to produce in exchange for a temporary salary.

He proposes individual actions that can open doors. Specifically to quiet “the proliferation of chatter” to reclaim your attention and thinking. And that is worth considering.

5. One Square Inch of Silence: One Man's Quest to Preserve Quiet by Gordon Hempton and John Grossmann—thesis: sound portraits of nature and the importance of the quality of sound in our lives.

Silence is not only nearly impossible today. Even working from home with everyone on lockdown has the frenetic, incessant grass cutting activity of neighbors and their landscape companies compete in breaking concentration. 

6. Deep Listening: A Composer's Sound Practice by Pauline Olivero—thesis: guide to ways of listening and sounding. 

When you enter an environment where there are birds, insects or animals, they are listening to you completely. You are received. Your presence may be the difference between life and death for the creatures of the environment. Listening is survival!

I've written about John Cage and his work on the sound of silence. Olivero was a performer of his music and focused more on embodiment and improvisation.

7. Sand Talk: How Indigenous Thinking Can Save the World by Tyson Yunkaporta—thesis: a special way of thinking, of learning to see from a native perspective, one that is spiritually and physically tied to the earth around us, and how it can save our world. Reads like a travel journal.

This as one of the two recommendations from Tim Kastelle in his recent webinar on taking along-term view. I've also been exploring these thoughts in my research about the connection of leaders with their territory in Italian companies, especially in my native region, Emilia-Romagna.

8. The Theology of Hope: On the Ground by Jurgen Moltmann—thesis: thick thinking about hope from a western view and eastern view (and even the more central German/Italian peoples who view context and objects as fairly equal in giving or taking away hope).

Read reviews of the book if you're considering it. It was a recommendation of Dave Snowden, creator of the Cynefin framework. The future is not based on historical events of the past, nor just more of it.

9. The Legacy of Heorot by Larry Niven, Jerry Pournelle, Steven Barnes—what would it take to colonize another planet? The problem of making the trip, the earth animal and plants that you needed take, the psychology of the people involved, leadership, the sexual and ethical morals, the technology are all covered.

This is another Dave Snowden recommendation. The book illustrates how people can learn to adapt, society can change. My take is that there is a moral conversation that needs to happen about the intent.

10. Negotiations 1972-1990 by Gilles Deleuze—traces the intellectual journey of a man widely acclaimed as one of the most important French philosophers. He had a lasting impact on a variety of disciplines, including aesthetics, film theory, psycho-analysis, and cultural studies.

…we’re riddled with pointless talk, insane quantities of words and images. Stupidity’s never blind or mute. So it’s not a problem of getting people to express themselves but of providing little gaps of solitude and silence in which they might eventually find something to say. Repressive forces don’t stop people expressing themselves but rather force them to express themselves; what a relief to have nothing to say, the right to say nothing, because only then is there a chance of framing the rare, and ever rarer, thing that might be worth saying.

He wrote the passage above in 1985. Silence makes the space for thinking better, for finding something useful to say. The interviews describe what the philosopher was trying to do with his work.

One more thing

I've mentioned this book before. This is a reading for the brave, for those of you who are willing to get in the mud that follows a war. it talks about profiteers, displacement, and the pain of destruction.

Savage Continent: Europe in the Aftermath of World War II by Keith Lowe—from the close of the war right to the establishment of an uneasy stability at the end of the 1940s. Based principally on primary sources from a dozen countries.

It gives you a dimension of how recovery and rebuilding were not easy nor quick. The war took more than six years out of people's lives, reducing many parts of Europe to rubble, many people to inhuman behavior.

So we should be very careful about using the war metaphor now. War language tries to push accountability onto an “enemy.” A virus is not a sentient being. It's worth choosing more appropriate language, lest the metaphor transfers to the profiteers of this new, imagined war.

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[A network map of a portion of the 6000+ scientists who are collaborating on #covid19 research. This network self-organized/emerged over the last few months. Links represent collaborations in 2020 only via Valdis Krebs]

What's the New Narrative? Habit-Forming Approaches to Resilience

Last year I created a website to encourage people to put life back into lifestyle. I was hearing a general disenchantment with the polished image of lifestyle influencers. Many colleagues and friends loved to hear my stories about the Made in Italy, and couldn't find anything resembling that genuine spirit of Italian style.

So I took the plunge and added the publication to my writing rotation. I was channeling a general sense of malaise with the perfect portrayals that left no room for real persons with family life and budgets to juggle to see themselves in the picture.

Then my developer died unexpectedly and I lost a dear friend and colleague of fifteen years. For a few weeks I was reeling from the loss and a bit lost in figuring out how to continue the project alone.

Little I knew then that we'd all be in a similar situation, losing friends and family members with the associated pain and stress a few short months later. That we'd do that mostly isolated while navigating the uncertainty of a pandemic.

Now all of a sudden, everything is raw and life-challenging.

Transitioning least favorite part of change

Nearly two months in, and everyone is still thinking about work in a new light, while playing catch up with emotions. Front line workers in health, food, and essential services are putting their life on the line daily. Millions of people are experimenting with work from home changes.

Parents are negotiating work and life along with child care and education. Left more to their devices, children are likely getting more responsible and showing greater resilience than expected.

Everyone is called to making decisions with imperfect information and on the fly. Lest we fall victim of hindsight bias, it's useful to remember that managers, parents, family members, colleagues are all making decisions before they know outcomes.

Unpredictable situations tend to be fluid. Say someone makes a decision that mitigates bad outcomes, then nothing happens. Will you get upset at the costs? Even when knowing that the decision could be the reason why nothing bad happened?

Everyone's feeling their way along a spectrum, transitioning from what was to grappling with what is. Harder still to think about what shall be. This is the human part of the curve few are talking about.

For many, style has taken on a new meaning. To me, it's the best way to express agency, a personal way of doing things. It includes appearance, but it runs deeper. It's who you are and how you behave in the world.

Don't jump to conclusions

Everyone is undergoing change at about the same time, but not together. Because of the need to stay apart, each person is physically facing the crisis alone. In some cases within a family unit. Along with the added logistics, the separation from normal routine may trigger pitfalls in judgement.

A group of psychologists outlined a few simple strategies for dealing with them. For example, unknown risk attracts more attention, but it's hard to sustain when the inability to think exponentially makes the numbers seem low. A good strategy for dealing with this issue, “We've been at it for a while, yet must be as vigilant as when it was all new.”

Another problem is the lack of immediate feedback loops. It takes a few days for a potential infection to emerge. In this case, it's helpful to, “Focus on your own planned behavior and not population statistics that change daily.”

Even though looking at log activity is a natural response to a situation that has such enormous consequences already felt across the world, your reactions may vary. Venkatesh Rao says#:

The log level is the lowest level of psychological functioning where a coherent sense of universal time passing is even possible. Further collapse leads to varying degrees of PTSD and traumatizing kinds of atemporality (there’s interesting research on this) driven by progressive fragmentation of identity into subhuman shards.

Math is the solution of last resort. When it's difficult, if not impossible to jump to conclusions through a neat narrative that explains what's going on, data is the ultimate pacifier. It's concrete and available.

Create a narrative

The status quo bias is hard to fight. An aversion to loss is baked into the human DNA and makes it harder to embrace change. But a loss of common narrative coming from the usual sources can be liberating as well.

After the initial shock and survival period, psychologically, we could think, “This crisis can help us to look at many things anew.” The broader debate on building physical things# that can reinforce infrastructure is likely a clue of recent institutional bias against action. A data point worth considering.

In many, alas not all, parts of the world, this experience is also showing us that where there's a will, there's an ability. Suddenly, it becomes easier to get things done quickly. For example, companies went from a few people working remotely to entire teams working from home.

Digital transformation happened without transition. Policy is playing catch up, and so is management. What was taking years because of fear of the unknown and resistance, took just a few days. Necessity is the mother of invention, as goes the popular saying.

There's little that compares to an emergency for focusing everyone. Narrative drives perception of agency rising and falling for every agent, says Rao. Right now, everyone feels they're losing the plot: Individuals, companies, institutions, etc.

It's easy to see the narrative plot as a zero-sum game, in terms of winners and losers. Without clear lines between who's winning and who's losing, it's hard to preserve the idea of personal agency. But if you can step away from societal pressures and defaults just a little, you can figure out what is meaningful to you, right now.

Use your mind to your advantage

Culture plays a big role in navigating the tension between personal style or agency, workplace norms and societal pressure. Transitioning is uncomfortable. You're not what you'll be, you're no longer what you were. It's typically the messy part of organizational change. Hard to say what's happening at societal level at this point.

There's one thing you can control: What you read, think, and say. For the past four weeks, I've had conversations with people all over the world as part of my involvement with Not Everyday Life.

I've learned that some people are rediscovering the vast power of nature to calm and inspire them. Others are creating art to deal with emotions: Writing, painting, coloring, taking photographs. Online learning adds focus for introverted children, others use it as an outlet to escape not available in classrooms.

Role reversals between teachers-pupils and among generations are accelerating. Working from home is highlighting individual contributions that otherwise are missed at the office. Many observed that their companies are operating as flatter organizations when everyone is remote.

After the initial adjustment, some individuals and companies are investing in training programs. Others are rediscovering stillness, and its value in creating space for reflection and better thinking.

In The Willpower Instinct, Kelly McGonigal says willpower has become the thing that distinguishes us from each other:

People who have better control of their attention, emotions, and actions are better off almost any way you look at it. They are happier and healthier. Their relationships are more satisfying and last longer. They make more money and go further in their careers. They are better able to manage stress, deal with conflict, and overcome adversity. They even live longer.

And a key to figuring out “I want” things, our real goals and desires. But this area of your brain is the smallest and has evolved more recently. This is why it's important to create routines and habits.

Charlie Munger says, “Organized common (or uncommon) sense — very basic knowledge — is an enormously powerful tool.” What we need right now is new habits in business.

Leaders can adapt to:

1. Accept the nature and impact of a new situation—strategy is not linear planning like a to-do list, it's even less so now. Exponential speed and uncertainty create chaos. Crisis is a dangerous time in which you need a solution fast. Strategy now requires fast and appropriate responses to changing conditions. 
2. Make things happen to keep momentum—crises don't shape character, they reveal it. Leonardo del Vecchio, chairman of eye-wear company Luxottica, stepped up support of employees. IndyCar company Dallara shifted gears to produce ventilators and acted on the suggestion of a 29-year old employee to pool vacation days in order to preserve pay for all employees, rather than reduce it for many through furlough measures.
3. Find a new frame of reference—by definition, the rules of an infinite game must change to stay in the game. Staying in the game makes business sustainable, playing with boundaries creates opportunities for innovation, generating time provides duration, eternal birth plays on the necessity to refresh, evolve, and reinvent.

In Lawrence Thornton's novel Imagining Argentina, Carlos Rueda says, “So long as we accept what the men in the car imagine, we’re finished. [...] We have to believe in the power of imagination because it is all we have, and ours is stronger than theirs. And that is why we will survive, because they do not have what is necessary to defeat us. The real war is between imagination and theirs, what we can see and what they are blind to. Do not despair. None of them can see far enough, and so long as we do not let them violate our imagination we will survive.”

Imagination is a powerful ally. Everything that looks stable and solid now was invented at some point. The most important part leaders can play is to define the challenges, build new fair guidelines that take needs into account, and communicate with clarity.

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I send out a chatty weekly email with links to resources to feel less lonely, lead better, and absorb some Italian style in good company.

Find Signal in Noise to Draw Meaning and Make Better Decisions

Cognitive biases, we're not leaving home without them. Well, right now we're not leaving home, period. It's just so interesting that there's an obsession over productivity and time spent on tasks, and yet, so little proportional attention to how what occupies brain waves impacts it.

I don't know if you've ever wondered why are there are so many cognitive biases. There must be some reason they survived through the centuries to modern day. And yes, I'm aware this is a rhetorical question, because cognitive biases help us address key needs in our lives:

• filter and sort information
• organize data
• draw conclusions
• simplify

Let's take a look at each of these first, then we'll talk about how to hedge your bets and avoid blind spots.

Too much information

What's going on now is that we all have too much information from disparate fields and sources to filter and sort through. It is rare that we feel we have too many trusted sources of information, however.

If the goal is turning noise into signal, how do you avoid depending too much on:

• things you notice in your memory
• unusual things that stick out
• change that gets noticed
• details that confirm your beliefs and attract your attention
• easier-to-spot flaws in others

Rather than give in to the brain's natural inclination, save effort in another way. Take a structured approach to figuring out the wheat from the chaff. For example, define elements that are critical to the evaluation, then use assessments made independently and based on facts. 

Use this method through thin and thick in news cycles and over time to assess the credibility of sources. Then perhaps you have a stronger base to start from moving froward.

Not enough meaning

Compounding the sorting challenge comes a need to organize data in a way that makes sense to you. By nature, news and public information are general. It takes more work to make it specific and applicable to you.

If you're in the process of constructing a story of what's going on right now, and how it applies to your company, you could observe how it's easy to:

• find stories and see patterns in sparse data
• fill in using stereotypes, generalities and prior history
• imagine things and people you're familiar with and like, rather than those who are unfamiliar
• simplify probabilities into numbers that are easier to remember
• think you know what others are thinking
• project current assumptions from the past into the future, getting timelines wrong

Resist the instinct to “fill in,” which happens in an instant and is an effortless process. You're rarely aware it's happening at all. You don't know that something is missing because it doesn't reach your attention threshold.

Like rational choice theory, common sense insists people have reasons for doing what they do. Maybe, but predicting what they will do and their reasons is anything but simple. You can only do that when you look back and rationalize or come up with a neat story about what worked and why.

This is a frame problem. But beware of papering over gaps where significant and critical information is missing. It could be a costly proposition.

Need to act fast

Once your mind wraps around a pattern you're tempted to use the emerging story to make decisions. The need for speed and uncertainty don't mix well. Right now, they're both high, which means we're right in the middle of chaos.

Some people do well in chaos, others need to create order to function. When things move fast in real time, order is an illusion. But this doesn't mean you need to jump to conclusions too quickly, either.

If you're feeling a compulsion to draw conclusions, you'll notice the:

• need to act fast to project confidence
• need to focus and favor the immediate, relatable thing vs. the delayed and distant gratification
• desire to complete what you started to get anything done because you already invested time and energy into getting to that point
• motivation to preserve autonomy and status over the desire to avoid mistakes from irreversible decisions
• simple over the complex and ambiguous

It's hard, but with practice it becomes easier to resist the temptation to go from stories into decisions. For example, every company looks at competition in terms of what they do and say. Yet. it's why they do and say it that matters. Often, it takes more digging to uncover why.

Everyone can copy tactics or words, but without looking under the hood, it's hard to copy results. There's a better method to figure out what's going on, and that is observing what customers do.

What to self-reinforce

One thing to remember is that each person has a certain way to look at the world. A point of view and perspective often based on reinforcing what is already known. It's what I call the view from somewhere.

Clarity is a moving target, because you're always competing with the story people have in their heads. Let's not forget how your own story sometimes gets ahead of what's really going on.

If you're keen on keeping yourself honest, you could take the extra step to be mindful that you tend to:

• edit and reinforce memories after the fact
• discard specifics and nuance in favor of generalizations
• reduce events to lists, bullets and key elements
• store memories differently based on how you experience them vs. their informational value

Thus make decisions based on potentially faulty mental models rooted into what was, rather than possible futures scenarios.

To be less wrong, it's useful to engage multiple perspectives, to see lots of possible answers to a question, lots of ways to interpret information, or to see multiple answers and not just one.

When in doubt, run small, low cost experiments to test and learn. Repeat to accelerate understanding.

The will to move forward

Divergent thinking is useful when you're exploring new situations. Typically, this is a skill honed through practice. For example, by applying ideas from different industries and roles to a question.

Beyond the ability to think differently, you also need the will to act differently.

This is the domain of creativity, or the ability to combine different bodies of knowledge and observation into a plan and execution. When you have enough dots to connect, you can see beyond the obvious and get going.

The core issue in companies and governments alike, is the ability to process a lot of information in a timely manner, sort what's important, draw meaning from it, and find a systematic way to make decisions. All good so far. Then nothing good happens. Why?

Because you can have all the expertise, resources, and capacity in the world, but if you have a weak leader whose mental models are more important than the facts, you're stuck.

Or maybe you're leading by committee and there's disagreement on how to move forward. Each person pulls in a different direction. You can have immense wealth, scientific knowledge, and readiness, but if the governance is terrible, you'll have terrible outcomes.

You need the means and the will to make things happen. And this is not just in your head, at the level of reasoning, where you can deal with cognitive biases. It's also in the rolling up of sleeves and building the infrastructure and governance to do what you've thought about. Stick with it long and often enough to learn.

Many organizations and companies have become mechanisms to respond to special interests, or keep things as they are, more or less. This works alright when things hum along, with the occasional speed bump.

But when a crisis hits, that's when you know if you have all the equipment to respond. For example, companies are now discovering that breaking the glass in case of marketing doesn't work so well if what's inside is just fluff.

The opposite if fluff is a decision. In fluid situations like the current one, it's useful also to update your thinking and decisions as more information becomes available. To avoid blind spots, leaders can:

1. Create a structured approach to filter and sort information, organize data, draw conclusions and simplify that will flag cognitive biases.
2. Build a team with divergent thinkers to expand horizons and convergent thinkers to get things done.
3. Create opening for dissent and conversation.
4. Listen to understand what others are saying, having defined the critical attributes that matter in advance.

Bonus points if you use Bayesian inference to update probabilities of things happening as more evidence or information becomes available.

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I send out a chatty weekly email with links to resources to feel less lonely, lead better, and absorb some Italian style in good company.